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- Category: Bitcoin
- Published: Sunday, 08 August 2021 19:20
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Bitcoin จำเป็นต้องเข้าถึง $53K เพื่อ 'จัดการกับ 'อุปสงค์/อุปทานที่ไม่สมดุล'
นักวิเคราะห์ Crypto : สยามัค มาสนาวี
ในวันอาทิตย์ (8 สิงหาคม) วิลลี่ วู นักวิเคราะห์ออนไลน์ที่โดดเด่นแนะนำว่าราคา Bitcoin พุ่งสูงขึ้นเนื่องจาก “อุปสงค์/อุปทานที่ไม่สมดุลในตลาด”
Woo กล่าวต่อไปว่ามูลค่ายุติธรรมของ Bitcoin อยู่ที่ 53,200 ดอลลาร์ ตามปัจจัยพื้นฐาน อย่างไรก็ตาม เขาชี้ให้เห็นว่า 'ปัจจัยพื้นฐานไม่ได้ทำนายราคาในระยะสั้น แต่ให้เวลาเพียงพอในการค้นพบราคาเพื่อเปลี่ยนกลับไปเป็นปัจจัยพื้นฐาน'
Will Clemente นักวิเคราะห์ออนไลน์อีกคน เห็นด้วยกับการประเมินของ Woo และอ้างถึงในการตอบกลับทวีตที่ hr โพสต์เมื่อวันที่ 31 กรกฎาคม โดยเขากล่าวว่าจากข้อมูลสภาพคล่องของ Bitcoin โดยแพลตฟอร์มการวิเคราะห์คริปโต Glassnode Studioราคาของ Bitcoin ในปัจจุบันควรอยู่ที่ประมาณ 53,000 เหรียญสหรัฐ
ในบล็อกโพสต์ที่เผยแพร่เมื่อวันที่ 29 ธันวาคม 2020 Glassnode CTO Rafael Schultze-Kraftได้พูดคุยเกี่ยวกับการวัดปริมาณสภาพคล่องของ Bitcoinโดยสังเกตว่า 'หาก bitcoins จำนวนมากมีสภาพคล่องน้อย จะเกิดวิกฤตด้านอุปทาน ซึ่งส่งผลกระทบที่อ่อนแอต่อแรงกดดันในการขายของ BTC ในตลาด' หรืออีกทางหนึ่ง 'การเพิ่มขึ้นอย่างต่อเนื่องของ bitcoins ที่ไม่มีสภาพคล่องเป็นตัวบ่งชี้ถึงความเชื่อมั่นของนักลงทุนที่แข็งแกร่งและสัญญาณเชิงบวกที่อาจเกิดขึ้น'
ในการวัดปริมาณสภาพคล่องของ Bitcoin Glassnode ใช้แนวคิดของ 'นิติบุคคล' เช่น 'บุคคลหรือสถาบันที่ควบคุมชุดของที่อยู่ในเครือข่าย Bitcoin' Glassnode ใช้ 'อัตราส่วนของการไหลออกสะสมและการไหลเข้าสะสมตลอดอายุของเอนทิตี' เพื่อวัดสภาพคล่องของหน่วยงาน Bitcoin
Glassnode CTO อธิบายความสำคัญของอัตราส่วนนี้ต่อไป:
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“อัตราส่วนนี้ให้จำนวน L ระหว่างศูนย์ถึงหนึ่ง โดยค่าที่มากกว่าบ่งชี้ว่ามีสภาพคล่องสูงขึ้น สภาพคล่องจึงเป็นขอบเขตที่กิจการใช้สินทรัพย์ที่ได้รับ หน่วยงานที่ไม่มีสภาพคล่องคือผู้ที่สะสมเหรียญเพื่อรอการแข็งค่าของราคา BTC ในระยะยาว
“ดังนั้น HODLer ที่ไม่เคยขาย (เช่นใช้เวลา Bitcoin ของพวกเขาในห่วงโซ่) L = 0มี บนมืออื่น ๆ ที่เป็นนิติบุคคลที่ใช้งานมากที่ซื้อและขาย BTC เป็นประจำเช่นการแลกเปลี่ยนมีค่า asymptotic L ~ 1ของ “
เอนทิตีถือเป็น'ของเหลว' ถ้า L < 0.25 'ของเหลว' ถ้า L อยู่ระหว่าง 0.25 ถึง 0.75 และ 'ของเหลวสูง' ถ้า L > = 0.75
ย้อนกลับไปเมื่อปลายเดือนธันวาคม 2020 ประมาณ 78% ของอุปทานหมุนเวียนถูกจัดประเภทเป็นของเหลว ซึ่งหมายความว่ามีเพียง 4.2 ล้าน bitcoins เท่านั้นที่ “มีการหมุนเวียนอย่างต่อเนื่องและพร้อมสำหรับการซื้อและขาย”
ข้อจำกัดความรับผิดชอบ
ความคิดเห็นและความคิดเห็นที่แสดงโดยผู้เขียนหรือบุคคลใดๆ ที่กล่าวถึงในบทความนี้ มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อให้ข้อมูลเท่านั้น และไม่ถือเป็นคำแนะนำด้านการเงิน การลงทุน หรือคำแนะนำอื่นๆ การลงทุนหรือซื้อขายสินทรัพย์ดิจิทัลมีความเสี่ยงที่จะสูญเสียทางการเงิน
เครดิตภาพ
ภาพ โดย 'petre_barlea' ผ่าน Pixabay
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